Numerous studies over the past decades have projected dramatic changes in wildland fire related to climate change for various parts of the world. These studies have projected increases in: fire seasons length, occurrences of extreme fire weather, average annual area burned and the occurrence of extreme fire events (e.g., see Report 4 on the Ecosystem Vulnerability reports page of this website).
Over the past decade these projections have begun to be borne out with some very dramatic fire events in Canada, the Western US, Europe, Northern Asia and South America. Zeroing in on Southeast BC we had a number of large fires in 2003, including fires in Kelowna, Mount Ingersoll, Kutetl Creek, Kuskanook Creek and Lamb Creek, followed by the Springer Creek, Sitkum Creek, Hamill Creek and Pend d’ Oreille River fires in 2007, capped off by the Rock Creek blaze in 2016. Alberta has also had a few recent disasters, Slave Lake in 2011 Fort McMurray in 2016 and the High Level (Chuckegg Creek) fire in early 2019.
The record-breaking fire seasons in British Columbia during 2017 and 2018 are likely a taste of things to come (see figure below - data from BC Government sources). Note that the average area burned in the province steadily decreased from early in the 20th century to the end of that century. This has been consistent with an increase in summer precipitation and decrease in summer temperatures and increased firefighting efforts in the West Kootenays (see Report 4 as above). However, as climate disruption has begun to reverse the trends in summer temperatures and precipitation, the area burned has now begun to increase into the 21st century. An attribution study noted in the figure indicated what role climate change played in the 2017 fire season.